Turkish Industrials: Buying Opportunities

In a recent note, we mentioned that now may be the moment to get in on value in Turkish stocks, particularly in industrial stocks. Following that, Borsa Istanbul Industrials Index (BIST:XUSIN) has bounced back 4.5% in two trading days, beating the banks, but currently see a sell-off (on Tuesday) but outperforming the broader market.

We think that the sell-off after the coup attempt created a buying opportunity. Hereby, we try to draw valid conclusions in a long-term perspective with the help of historical data and fundamental outlook.

First, returns over the past several years are in favor of our idea that industrial stocks should be opted for the upcoming period. Turkish banking stocks has suffered from an earnings recession recently, as well as the regulatory environment has been severe for the industry after late-2008 financial crisis which has weighed on global financial institutions.

Second, in our view, S&P’s ratings decisions typically act as a reserve proxy for Turkish stock market. Provided that the agency just downgraded the country by one notch, Turkish stocks might have entered a bull market. This is partly due to credit ratings persistently lagging behind market.

Turkish Stocks - Banks v Industrials - Reaction to S&P Rate Decisions

Below is list of our Turkish industrial picks.

Turkish Industrial Stocks

And below we provide EV/EBITDA metric for the stock that we analyzed, comparing the current level to the historical average and +2 (-2) standard deviations. Most of the stocks currently look cheap and undervalued across the metric.

Turkish Industrial Stocks EV EBITDA Valuations

Akcansa (BIST:AKCNS), a building materials company and a subsidiary of Sabanci Holding (BIST:SAHOL), in our view, has compelling risk reward profile thanks to its exposure to Istanbul region, its resilience in a potential volatility in cement prices, and its cost outlook taking the pressure off.

Arcelik (BIST:ARCLK), has pulled out a great financial performance in 1H16 owing to a decline in raw material prices, but more importantly to a surge in TV sales ahead Euro 2016 and Summer Olympic Games. The company has now a significant share in European markets and solid growth prospect for the future.

Aygaz (BIST:AYGAZ) enjoyed the strong domestic demand for LPG last year which is not likely to sustain this year, still, the stock is trading at a significant discount from a historical point of view. Thus, we recommend investors to consider it who are willing to build position in Turkish equities with a long-term perspective.

Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari (BIST:EREGL) has been one of top-traded industrial stocks in Turkey and always offer value to traders who’s looking at this part of the world. As an iron and steel producer, the company faces risks arising out of ups and downs in raw material prices, and always benefits from its structural advantages including not being a vertically integrated producer and hosting ports in its plants.

Ford Otomotiv (BIST:FROTO) has poised for strong EBITDA growth over the next three years as the investments that the company made earlier are starting to pan out. The company hit the gas pedal with the management guiding for almost 100% capacity utilization during this timeframe. Still, the UK remaining in recession longer than expected poses risks for sales as it is the top market for the company. With that being said, the stock is currently trading below its mid-cycle average, creating a big opportunity to get in.

Turkish Industrial Stocks - Emerging Market Peers Multiple Comparison

Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik (BIST:KRDMD) is trading at 35% discount to its book value and appears like a deep value play.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi (BIST:TOASO) is another company in Turkish autos spectrum that is set for full capacity thanks to newly introduced sedan models which will build a supportive case for our growth story.

Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri (BIST:TTRAK) received a number of upgrades by the analysts with the help of strong demand boosting the sales in 1H16. Declining interest rates will provide further support for the bottom-line growth.

Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (BIST:TUPRS) has sustained the best-in-class margins, showed operational excellence and proved to be a prominent play in emerging markets E&P universe.

Turkish Banks: Expectations, Valuations & Risks

Expectations

Over the past two months we have seen earnings upgrades coming to an end in most emerging market as well as in Turkey. Specifically, for Turkish banks, consensus lowered next year’s earnings estimate by a considerable 0.7%, bringing the cumulative cut to 1.5% since mid-August. Still, analysts averagely estimate an earnings per share growth of 20% in 2015 following a 9% contracting this year. On the other hand projections at year beginnings proved to be optimistic in six of last seven years as we have seen those projections being downgraded afterwards.

Meanwhile, year to date return of Turkish banks stocks is 23.5% which higher than the return of the benchmark index XU100.

Turkish Stocks Returns

Valuations

Out of Turkey six large banks listed on the stock exchange, Garanti is the one enjoying premium valuations with P/E of 13.6 and with trading 1.5 times its book value. Akbank seems to have the second highest multiples. Yapi Kredi‘s lower P/E is due to selling its insurance subsidy to Allianz on a $1 billion deal. Compared to their peers, Isbank, Halkbank and Vakifbank are notably undervalued. Additionally, the six banks mentioned here account for 25% of market cap of the all companies listed on Borsa Istanbul.

Turkish Banks - Valuations

Risks

Apart from the key risks including declining GDP growth projections, vulnerability of Turkish lira, and geopolitical risks, there may be some other industry-specific headwinds to face. First, the loan to deposit ratio in Turkish banks have stayed above normal since 2012 which is now 115% leaving the companies with in sufficient liquidity to cover any unexpected fund requirements. Second, Tier1 common capital ratios (Capital Adequacy Standard Ratios) which measures the financial strength of banks by comparing the banks’ core equity capital to their risk weighted assets, have appeared to be weakening since the late-2008 global financial crisis (the following link goes to the article where we mentioned the importance of the sound fundamentals of its financial system for Turkey).

 Turkish Banks LD Spread

Turkish Banks - Capital Ratios