Q3 2016: Growth Turned Negative
Turkey’s official statistics office released major revisions to its national accounts data as the data was rebased such that the components are weighted to compile a real GDP statistics by chain-linking with 2009 as the base year. The office also introduced changes to the GDP calculation method are some items are now included within investment expenditures. Turkey’s macroeconomic variables seems to be healthier now as nominal GDP jumped about 10% solely based on revisions, taking CAD-to-GDP ratio down...
Growth is Set for a Q4 Comeback?
Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same level of output growth for 2016 in October, coming down from 3.67% in July. Put together, Turkey had experienced a severe economic slowdown during Q3 -we believe there is good chance that seasonally adjusted GDP growth will be negative-. Given the rise of 3.9% in...