Turkish Stocks: Banks v Industrials
One of the key market themes that marked this year has been the bank stocks trading with low multiples and the advancement in the industrials. Time and time again we uttered that the golden age of Turkish banking is over (see here and here) which was finally embraced by a top banker in Turkey. Given the banks capturing a dominant share of the Turkish stock market the BIST 100 index has expectedly performed poorly.
We...
State-Owned Banks under Pressure
Considering the fact that poor performance from main bank stocks is more able to drag the whole market down in Turkey than anywhere else, I have been trying to provide comprehensive information about the key themes in the industry in order to measure the changing dynamics. From this point I find analyzing of state-owned banks’ recent performance extremely necessary as it is already seen as the biggest threat to Turkish markets.
Halkbank and Vakifbank are the state-owned banks whose shares also...
Turkish Banks: Expectations, Valuations & Risks
Over the past two months we have seen earnings upgrades coming to an end in most emerging market as well as in Turkey. Specifically, for Turkish banks, consensus lowered next year’s earnings estimate by a considerable 0.7%, bringing the cumulative cut to 1.5% since mid-August. Still, analysts averagely estimate an earnings per share growth of 20% in 2015 following a 9% contracting this year. On the other hand projections at year beginnings proved to be optimistic in six...