Posts Tagged Output Gap
Taylor Rule in Turkey

Taylor Rule in Turkey

Has the Turkey’s monetary policy been sufficiently tight? This question becomes extremely crucial especially after the Turkish politicians’ blistering attack on the central bank that have raised the concerns about the independence of Turkish central bank. Amid these concerns Turkey central bank has cut the rates twice in 2015 bringing its policy rate from 8.75% down to 7.50%.

Taking back to the question asked at the prelude, the Taylor-rule framework can be used to assess the appropriateness of...

GDP Growth and Potential Output in Turkey

GDP Growth and Potential Output in Turkey

It is strange to see that economists taking part in analyzing Turkey do not have a consensus about the third quarter growth projections. Turkey reported a year-over-year growth rate of 2.1% in the second quarter in which exports as a positive contributor to the growth surprised to the upside while investment significantly remained weaker. On quarterly basis Turkey  grew by 5% after reporting a contraction of 6.2% in the first quarter of the year. The bullish side thinks...

Capacity Utilization Drops in November

Capacity Utilization Drops in November

Capacity utilization rate (CUR) was realized at 75.6% in November. It means an increase 160 basis points compared to last year but a slight decline month over month by 80 basis points. Seasonally adjusted CUR also dropped to 74.9% by 90 basis points.

Looking at the figures from a broader perspective, the CUR had hanged around 80% in the pre-crisis period of 2008, then following the collapse of Lehman, it dramatically plummeted to 60% as a result...

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