Browsing: Loan Growth

Macro View
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Monetary Confusion and Credit Cycles

Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap and high inflation may be among them, despite a good economic performance. Pretending that…

Macro View
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Loan Growth: Where do the Expenses Come From?

Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the beginning of a period of low growth with tepid economic performance.…

Macro View
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Growth is Set for a Q4 Comeback?

Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same level of output growth for 2016 in October, coming down from 3.67%…

Macro View
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Turkey: Any Room for Loan Growth?

Turkish central bank cut its overnight marginal funding rates by 75 basis points in the past two monetary policy meetings in an effort to simplify its interest rate structure as the volatility in global financial markets eases. The rate cuts came amid criticism by the…

Sector Reports
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Turkish Banks: What Went Wrong?

Turkish banks which have spent years with high profits generated in the past, only managed a ROE of 10.6% (10-year average was 16.1%), well below the business’ cost of capital of at least 15% and the returns which investors aspire. Unlike their peers around the…

Macro View
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Turkey’s Resilience to a Fed Rate Hike

The effects on emerging markets of unconventional monetary policies implemented by some advanced economies have been a focus of debate. The policy of so-called quantitative easing that the central banks in advanced economies embarked on has increased capital flows to emerging markets. However, as these…

Equities
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Determinants of Bank Profitability

Examining the determinants of the banks profitability is very important in any economy as these foundations perform key financial functions. In Turkey it is even more important considering the fact that the stock market is heavily dominated by the banks. See here, here and here…

Macro View
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Sluggish Credit Growth: A Cause for Concern?

The evolution of Turkey’s banking system in early 2000s was a lesson to be learned for any emerging countries, even for the developed ones. Following the 1994 crisis, Turkish financial system had come to settle in a fuzzy equilibrium with a large nominal stock of…

Macro View
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A More Supervised Credit Era Begins in Turkey

Too much public spending, excessive reliance on domestic demand and loose monetary policy. These are the points that IMF implied about Turkish economy within its global economic outlook report published recently. In addition, for the past few years, the country’s technocrats have forewarned of rates…