Posts Tagged Loan Growth
Monetary Confusion and Credit Cycles

Monetary Confusion and Credit Cycles

Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap and high inflation may be among them, despite a good economic performance.

Pretending that the central bank is the only game in town is inherited by the world of quantitative easing, where developing economies are besotted with a cheap money which has been in place for...

Loan Growth: Where do the Expenses Come From?

Loan Growth: Where do the Expenses Come From?

Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the beginning of a period of low growth with tepid economic performance. However, what Turkey has been experiencing for a long time is in fact a secular slowdown, or an economic crisis in slow-motion, to speak clearly. Speaking of short term predictions, while the pre-indicators...

Growth is Set for a Q4 Comeback?

Growth is Set for a Q4 Comeback?

Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same level of output growth for 2016 in October, coming down from 3.67% in July. Put together, Turkey had experienced a severe economic slowdown during Q3 -we believe there is good chance that seasonally adjusted GDP growth will be negative-. Given the rise of 3.9% in...

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