Industrial Output Confirms Modest Growth

It was last Friday when Standard and Poor’s cut Turkey’s outlook to negative with affirming its notch at BB+ one step sohrt of the investment grade. The credit rating agency also saw risks of a hard landing. Today we have the yearend number industrial output number suggesting that growth continues at moderate pace. Seasonally and working day adjusted industrial output grew by 6.9% on yearly basis.

Turkey - Industrial Output & GDP Growth

The correlation has been 97.8% between industrial output and GDP growth since 2006 when we had the industrial output numbers first. In my opinion it is strong enough to forecast the GDP growth in last quarter.

Annual industrial output growth rates were -0.5%, 4.6%, and 6.9%, in the last three months of last year, respectively, and according to a simple analysis, it suggests 3.6% GDP growth on yearly basis in 2013.

The official data will announced on 31 Mar 2014.