Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum
Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate that exceeded expectations, economic indicator overall suggested the continuation of the economic upswing and we now estimate that Turkey will post another 5% growth rate for second quarter.
Before leading in, we see it fit to add some comments about Turkey’s GDP revision. We believe that the harsh...
Q4 2016 GDP Preview: Recovering but Subdued
Q4 2016 GDP data will be posted this Friday, probably mark a recovery from Q3 when a negative figure was recorded as the consensus estimates signal a 1.9% annual change in GDP, corresponding to 2.2% growth for FY 2016.
We believe that Q4 GDP growth is likely to exceed estimations as we see strong exports and government spending building a supportive case for the economic activity. That said, subdued growth will still be the overriding theme as pre-indicators suggest a weaker...
The Chart Speaks For Itself
Depending on external finance has been the case for almost any emerging market, but in Turkey it is life-sustaining given the country’s external balance profile, which has always had a bad title due to being an energy importer and demographics that fuel consumption.
Speaking of external balance, Turkey is also known for its banks’ ability to provide foreign borrowings as syndication loans for a while has been the most important source for banks to finance the growth. To cut a long...