Browsing: GDP Growth

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Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum

Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate that exceeded expectations, economic indicator overall suggested the continuation of the economic…

Macro View
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Q4 2016 GDP Preview: Recovering but Subdued

Q4 2016 GDP data will be posted this Friday, probably mark a recovery from Q3 when a negative figure was recorded as the consensus estimates signal a 1.9% annual change in GDP, corresponding to 2.2% growth for FY 2016. We believe that Q4 GDP growth…

Macro View
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Time for A Macro Update

It is time for an update after a hiatus of several weeks on the blog. In our previous two articles, we put emphasis on Q3 GDP growth which posted a bad reading as the economic output growth turned to negative territory for the first time…

Macro View
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Q3 2016: Growth Turned Negative

First, The Revision Turkey’s official statistics office released major revisions to its national accounts data as the data was rebased such that the components are weighted to compile a real GDP statistics by chain-linking with 2009 as the base year. The office also introduced changes…

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August Job Report: Confirming Weakness

The unemployment rate in Turkey rose by 1.2 percentage points y/y to 11.3% while the non-farm unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%. This August job report marked another step in deceleration pace of the economy. Partly due to the purge following the coup attempt and struggling…

Macro View
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September Industrial Production: Stating GDP Contraction

September industrial production index was down -4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Following the results analysts downgraded their 2016 GDP growth estimate to…

Macro View
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Growth is Set for a Q4 Comeback?

Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same level of output growth for 2016 in October, coming down from 3.67%…

Macro View
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August Industrial Production: Not Enough Dynamism

Rising by 2% y/y, industrial production index posted a subdued performance in seasonally and working-day adjusted series in August, after a decline of 4% in July.  The sub-index of manufacturing performed even worse with posting 1.4% growth after contracting by 5.4%, which is the industry…

Macro View
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Turkey: Q2 2016 Recap

Turkey’s real GDP grew by 3.1% y/y in Q2, below the market consensus of 3.7% and our estimation of 3.4%. Of that growth number, 3.4% and 1.7% came from household and public consumption, respectively, which were partly offset by weak foreign demand that a negative…

Macro View
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Turkey Macro: 2Q16 GDP Growth Preview

Turkey’s growth has been remarkable resilient recently. While some of the biggest developing has entered recession, and some other has just muddled along, Turkey has managed to sustain economic growth along with its Asia peers amid rising concerns around emerging markets. Turkey, despite some setbacks,…

Macro View
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Turkey: February Job Report

Good News or Bad News Labor market data for February 2016 was released early this week. The unemployment rate was down 20 basis points on monthly basis to 10.9% according to the official figures. The employment rate also saw a pick-up and stood at 45.3%…

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