Fragility Ahead for Turkish Lira?
Turkish lira has been particularly weak as of the beginning of October. As prospects of a Federal Reserve rate in December hike boosted again, many emerging market currencies is doomed to be weak in the remainder of this year. However, Turkish lira has seemed to be high-beta asset class in EMFX space so far.
Looking at the domestic factors that resulted in a weaker lira, Moody’s downgrade that deprived Turkey of IG is the primary reason in...
Will Turkey Trail South Korea?
In a previous post, I noted that the shape of things to come in Turkey is getting similar to that of economic crisis occurred in South Korea in late 90s. I accept that in term of economic dynamics, South Korea differs much from Turkey as well as periodically 1997 does the same from 2014. However this should not be such a interceptor for a few points to worth stressing and I think in some way what South Korea...
According to Nomura, A Currency Crisis Is Not Too Far
Time after time, we saw striking warnings about Turkish economy in reports, published by many huge international institutions. Once for all, Nomura, position Turkey at a more risky place than it does Indonesia and Brazil (in other words BIITS).
Since the end of 2009, Nomura is publishing Global Emerging Markets Risk Index (GEMaRI) scores, which casts light on the underlying fragility of each emerging market. Frankly speaking, this index is not a actual indicator for investors’ choice...