McKinsey Believes in Turkey Failure
In other words, they do not believe in Dr. Erdem Basci, the governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, who said “believe in me and win” while estimating year-end USD/TRY rate at 1.92 in a TV interview (for those who wonder, the rate has hanged between 1.96 and 2.08 since the interview).
Retuning to the subject, McKinsey released a marvelous report pointing to things that likely to happen after Fed decides leave its liquidity injection programme to...
Trend of Deposit Does Not Look Pretty
The recent trend of FX deposits does not look pretty at all as well as acts as reminiscent of 2001’s financial crisis in Turkey. The chart above shows the clear picture of both TRY and FX deposits are heading into. As demonstrated above, the terrifying spread emerged last summer, likely after the erosion of Turkish Lira due to capital inflows arising out of political unrest. A shocking move in foreign exchange rate supports the herd mentality...
According to Nomura, A Currency Crisis Is Not Too Far
Time after time, we saw striking warnings about Turkish economy in reports, published by many huge international institutions. Once for all, Nomura, position Turkey at a more risky place than it does Indonesia and Brazil (in other words BIITS).
Since the end of 2009, Nomura is publishing Global Emerging Markets Risk Index (GEMaRI) scores, which casts light on the underlying fragility of each emerging market. Frankly speaking, this index is not a actual indicator for investors’ choice...