Turkey’s Resilience to a Fed Rate Hike
The effects on emerging markets of unconventional monetary policies implemented by some advanced economies have been a focus of debate. The policy of so-called quantitative easing that the central banks in advanced economies embarked on has increased capital flows to emerging markets. However, as these policies are scheduled to end in the near future and advanced economies are beginning to normalize their monetary policy, we are watching episodes of volatility in global financial markets. For emerging markets improving...
Sluggish Credit Growth: A Cause for Concern?
The evolution of Turkey’s banking system in early 2000s was a lesson to be learned for any emerging countries, even for the developed ones. Following the 1994 crisis, Turkish financial system had come to settle in a fuzzy equilibrium with a large nominal stock of carried by a handful of banks in a lucrative “carry trade”, and a large number of lemon banks involved in tunneling bank deposits to shareholders through connected lending. Unsurprisingly, the industry had to...
The Impact of Credit on Turkey’s Growth
Credit impulse is an economic measure first introduced by Deustche Bank economist Michael Biggs. It is simply the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. The conventional method measure used when associating developments in credit with developments in domestic demand is credit growth which actually is the growth in the stock of credit. But one should consider that domestic demand depends on the amount borrowed in a particular period, or the flow of credit. If this...