September Industrial Production: Stating GDP Contraction
September industrial production index was down -4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Following the results analysts downgraded their 2016 GDP growth estimate to the 2.3%-2.5% from the recent 3%-3.5% as an output contraction is very likely in 3Q 2016. The Ramadan holiday negatively affected the data, however, we also saw a decline in seasonally and working-day...
Turkey: Q2 2016 Recap
Turkey’s real GDP grew by 3.1% y/y in Q2, below the market consensus of 3.7% and our estimation of 3.4%. Of that growth number, 3.4% and 1.7% came from household and public consumption, respectively, which were partly offset by weak foreign demand that a negative impact of 2.2 pps on growth. Aside from being lower than expectations, the GDP report has some worrisome points including a public demand taking on a progressively larger role in driving economy.
Q1 2016 GDP Growth: Stronger but Iffy
Turkish economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2015, above the consensus and our expectations of 4.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded by 3% q/q. Household consumption expenditures, which generates two thirds of the GDP, continued to improve and posted a growth rate of 6.9% y/y. By this, the contribution of the biggest component of growth to the economy became 4.8%, in other words, it was all about domestic demand again. 120 bps of contribution to the...