Confidence Indicators Signal A Tragedy
After the shocking interest rate hike by Turkish Central Bank that made many people mesmerized late at night, we have seen how Turkish Lira has turned into a hit and run for traders as it reached at 2.31 per dollar after breaking below 2.17. The decision was interpreted as that Turkish Central bank regains the credibility that it lost (last week). Well, taking a look at the exchange rates, it seems like credibility is lost again but may...
A Recession Ahead?
I might be the luckiest blogger posting about economics around the cyber world. My last post was questioning if Turkish Central Bank has enough foreign exchange reserves or not, I used some metrics to get the question answered such as gross foreign exchange reserves to short-term foreign debt ratio (see it here). The results were clearly not pretty. And we all know that what happened then. Turkish Central Bank could not stop lira depreciating even if it intervened...
Capacity Utilization Drops in November
Capacity utilization rate (CUR) was realized at 75.6% in November. It means an increase 160 basis points compared to last year but a slight decline month over month by 80 basis points. Seasonally adjusted CUR also dropped to 74.9% by 90 basis points.
Looking at the figures from a broader perspective, the CUR had hanged around 80% in the pre-crisis period of 2008, then following the collapse of Lehman, it dramatically plummeted to 60% as a result...