Depending on external finance has been the case for almost any emerging market, but in Turkey it is life-sustaining given the country’s external balance profile, which has always had a bad title due to being an energy importer and demographics that fuel consumption. Speaking of…
To date we have posted two articles specifically focused on differentiates between public and private banks. As they have been in many developing economies ─particularly in India─, banks controlled by the government are milked to the bone with being forced to provide lending to sustain…
We have been closely monitoring the banking sector in Turkey as the industry is usually at the focal point for investors looking at the country. Previously we analyzed the declining earnings in the industry and our finding suggested that the monetary policy framework causing higher…
Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the beginning of a period of low growth with tepid economic performance.…
In a widely expected and almost inevitable move, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating by one notch to Ba1 (junk level) on Friday, quoting the increase in the risks related the country’s external funding requirements and the weakening in previously supportive credit fundamentals, particularly growth and…
Good News or Bad News Labor market data for February 2016 was released early this week. The unemployment rate was down 20 basis points on monthly basis to 10.9% according to the official figures. The employment rate also saw a pick-up and stood at 45.3%…
Turkish central bank cut its overnight marginal funding rates by 75 basis points in the past two monetary policy meetings in an effort to simplify its interest rate structure as the volatility in global financial markets eases. The rate cuts came amid criticism by the…
Macroeconomic Outlook After years of full of challenges, Pakistani economy is now out of the woods with high-single digit GDP growth rates projected for the upcoming two years. Even if the country still faces some significant political risks and has some vulnerabilities due to high…
Bad loans in Turkey soared 3.6% m/m in January caused concerns rising around the asset quality in the financial sector. Even worse, annual change was 32.6% which was the highest figure recorded in six years. That being said, total NPLs in Turkish banking universe rose…
Time and time again, we concerned ourselves with volume growth trends in Turkish banking spectrum. As is the case with any emerging market, credit growth in Turkey has been phenomenal since interest rates cut to near zero in developed economies. That being said, deposit growth…
One of the key market themes that marked this year has been the bank stocks trading with low multiples and the advancement in the industrials. Time and time again we uttered that the golden age of Turkish banking is over (see here and here) which…
The U.S. Federal Reserve tightening that is to set off a big exodus from emerging markets, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has currently weighed on Turkish markets. We have seen all Turkish asset classes posting heavy losses as well as Turkish…