Q4 2016 GDP Preview: Recovering but Subdued

Q4 2016 GDP data will be posted this Friday, probably mark a recovery from Q3 when a negative figure was recorded as the consensus estimates signal a 1.9% annual change in GDP, corresponding to 2.2% growth for FY 2016.

We believe that Q4 GDP growth is likely to exceed estimations as we see strong exports and government spending building a supportive case for the economic activity. That said, subdued growth will still be the overriding theme as pre-indicators suggest a weaker economy during Q1 2017.

Industrial production and capital good production indicators are in favor of a growth rate remaining at positive territory for the final quarter of 2016.

We also see export orders being constructive

As auto producers enjoyed a recovery in Europe, and the competition advantage that the currency depreciation brought which,

however, have had a negative impact on consumers.

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