Turkey GDP Data: Time for an Overhaul?

Turkey GDP Data: Time for an Overhaul?

Turkey posted its first negative GDP growth figure in seven years in Q3 2016 when it abruptly announced a methodology change in the calculation of the macro economic variable just the day before the official statement. After having released reports for more the two consecutive quarters when each reading exceeded the consensus estimates by wide margins, it prompted skepticism from many economists. In our view, these skepticism is partly justified due to the disconnect between the headline figure and the...

Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum

Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum

Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate that exceeded expectations, economic indicator overall suggested the continuation of the economic upswing and we now estimate that Turkey will post another 5% growth rate for second quarter.

Before leading in, we see it fit to add some comments about Turkey’s GDP revision. We believe that the harsh...

Why Inflation May Not Fell to Single-Digit Figures This Year

Why Inflation May Not Fell to Single-Digit Figures This Year

The following is an update about April inflation print in Turkey (source: Hurriyet Daily News):

Turkey’s annual inflation rate increased in April, reaching its highest level in around nine years, as a result of a weak Turkish Lira in several sectors, according to official data released on May 3.

Consumer prices in Turkey rose 11.87 percent year-on-year in April from 11.29 percent in March, data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK) showed. Annual consumer price inflation was also at the highest level...

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