Browsing: Macro View

Macro View
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August Industrial Production: Not Enough Dynamism

Rising by 2% y/y, industrial production index posted a subdued performance in seasonally and working-day adjusted series in August, after a decline of 4% in July.  The sub-index of manufacturing performed even worse with posting 1.4% growth after contracting by 5.4%, which is the industry…

Macro View
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Turkey: Debt on the Radar Again

In a widely expected and almost inevitable move, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating by one notch to Ba1 (junk level) on Friday, quoting the increase in the risks related the country’s external funding requirements and the weakening in previously supportive credit fundamentals, particularly growth and…

Macro View
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Turkey: Q2 2016 Recap

Turkey’s real GDP grew by 3.1% y/y in Q2, below the market consensus of 3.7% and our estimation of 3.4%. Of that growth number, 3.4% and 1.7% came from household and public consumption, respectively, which were partly offset by weak foreign demand that a negative…

Macro View
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August Inflation: Short Term Relief Provided

Headline inflation surprised on the downside in August with m/m realization of -0.29% against the market expectations for a flat reading. Annual inflation lowered to 8.05% from 8.79% a month ago. Meanwhile core inflation has also declined in August to 8.4% from 8.8% in July.…

Macro View
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Turkey Macro: 2Q16 GDP Growth Preview

Turkey’s growth has been remarkable resilient recently. While some of the biggest developing has entered recession, and some other has just muddled along, Turkey has managed to sustain economic growth along with its Asia peers amid rising concerns around emerging markets. Turkey, despite some setbacks,…

Macro View
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Turkish Banks: What to Expect After 2Q Earnings

Turkish banks enjoyed the seconds earnings season of this year, as their profitability metrics hit two-year highs on the back of strong operational performance. The downward trend for Turkish banking sector that had started in mid-2013 ended in August 2015, when the systemwide ROAE hit…

Equities
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Turkey: Life After Coup Attempt

On July 15, there was a strategically inept and thankfully failed coup attempt in Turkey, which, in fact, was destined for failure and would lead nothing but a civil war. It was that latest mishap in a long series of political events, and is now…

Macro View
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Why Core Inflation Will Stay High?

Turkish central bank has been failed to use its monetary policy tools to maintain low inflation. The headline inflation rate has been extremely volatile due to fluctuating food prices, while core inflation has remained stubbornly above the target rate of 5% over the past five…

Macro View
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Q1 2016 GDP Growth: Stronger but Iffy

Turkish economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2015, above the consensus and our expectations of 4.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded by 3% q/q. Household consumption expenditures, which generates two thirds of the GDP, continued to improve and posted a growth rate of…

Macro View
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Turkey: February Job Report

Good News or Bad News Labor market data for February 2016 was released early this week. The unemployment rate was down 20 basis points on monthly basis to 10.9% according to the official figures. The employment rate also saw a pick-up and stood at 45.3%…

Macro View
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Turkey: End of the Benign Cycle in Inflation?

The results of Turkish central bank’s survey of expectations released which showed that participants were expecting to see monthly reading of 0.65% in May inflation. Having said that, the year-end CPI growth is now projected at 7.80%, 11 basis points lower when compared to the…

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