Declining volumes in currency trading has been an overriding theme as banks have been subject to stricter regulations on their trading activities. It is early to talk about the recent Trumpflation trade has caused any change globally, but when it comes to trading Turkish lira…
Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap and high inflation may be among them, despite a good economic performance. Pretending that…
The monetary policy committee raised 1-week rate by 50 bps to 8% and the upper band by 25 bps to 8.50% vs a consensus expectations split between a 25 bps hike in the 1-week repo change and no change. As a separate decision, the central…
There is substantial uncertainty stemming from several factors pressuring the core indicators, both to the upside and downside. On one hand, we have slowing economic activity with faster than expected rise in unemployment is easing inflationary pressures. On the other hand, TRY depreciating trend which…
The unemployment rate in Turkey rose by 1.2 percentage points y/y to 11.3% while the non-farm unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%. This August job report marked another step in deceleration pace of the economy. Partly due to the purge following the coup attempt and struggling…
September industrial production index was down -4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Following the results analysts downgraded their 2016 GDP growth estimate to…
S&P upgraded Turkey’s outlook from negative to stable with a maintain a credit rating of BB which is two notches below the investment grade, citing government policy gradually refocusing on measures to reduce external vulnerabilities. Here we list key takeaways from the report: Accepting that…
Headline inflation in October came out at 1.44% m/m pointing to an annual inflation rate of 7.16%, fell behind the expectations of 1.58% but slightly higher than our estimate of 1.40%. Meanwhile downward trend in core indicators continued, as I-index y/y change declined 7.04% in…
Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the beginning of a period of low growth with tepid economic performance.…
Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same level of output growth for 2016 in October, coming down from 3.67%…
Turkish lira has been particularly weak as of the beginning of October. As prospects of a Federal Reserve rate in December hike boosted again, many emerging market currencies is doomed to be weak in the remainder of this year. However, Turkish lira has seemed to…
Rising by 2% y/y, industrial production index posted a subdued performance in seasonally and working-day adjusted series in August, after a decline of 4% in July. The sub-index of manufacturing performed even worse with posting 1.4% growth after contracting by 5.4%, which is the industry…