Browsing: Macro View

Macro View
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Time for A Macro Update

It is time for an update after a hiatus of several weeks on the blog. In our previous two articles, we put emphasis on Q3 GDP growth which posted a bad reading as the economic output growth turned to negative territory for the first time…

Macro View
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Service Jobs: Structural Headwind?

One of the key issues the world economy faces today is declining productivity. At this juncture, Turkey seems to be obliged to deal with a structural headwind stemming from its weakness labor market of which dynamics have changed radically. As this is the case in…

Macro View
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Q3 2016: Growth Turned Negative

First, The Revision Turkey’s official statistics office released major revisions to its national accounts data as the data was rebased such that the components are weighted to compile a real GDP statistics by chain-linking with 2009 as the base year. The office also introduced changes…

Macro View
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Turkish Lira: Liquidity Challenges Ahead

Declining volumes in currency trading has been an overriding theme as banks have been subject to stricter regulations on their trading activities. It is early to talk about the recent Trumpflation trade has caused any change globally, but when it comes to trading Turkish lira…

Macro View
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Monetary Confusion and Credit Cycles

Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap and high inflation may be among them, despite a good economic performance. Pretending that…

Macro View
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November MPC: Waiting For Further Hikes

The monetary policy committee raised 1-week rate by 50 bps to 8% and the upper band by 25 bps to 8.50% vs a consensus expectations split between a 25 bps hike in the 1-week repo change and no change. As a separate decision, the central…

Macro View
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Inflation Risk Rises As Lira Falters

There is substantial uncertainty stemming from several factors pressuring the core indicators, both to the upside and downside. On one hand, we have slowing economic activity with faster than expected rise in unemployment is easing inflationary pressures. On the other hand, TRY depreciating trend which…

Macro View
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August Job Report: Confirming Weakness

The unemployment rate in Turkey rose by 1.2 percentage points y/y to 11.3% while the non-farm unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%. This August job report marked another step in deceleration pace of the economy. Partly due to the purge following the coup attempt and struggling…

Macro View
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September Industrial Production: Stating GDP Contraction

September industrial production index was down -4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Following the results analysts downgraded their 2016 GDP growth estimate to…

Macro View
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Turkey Outlook Upgraded at S&P

S&P upgraded Turkey’s outlook from negative to stable with a maintain a credit rating of BB which is two notches below the investment grade, citing government policy gradually refocusing on measures to reduce external vulnerabilities. Here we list key takeaways from the report: Accepting that…

Macro View
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October Inflation: The End of the Line

Headline inflation in October came out at 1.44% m/m pointing to an annual inflation rate of 7.16%, fell behind the expectations of 1.58% but slightly higher than our estimate of 1.40%. Meanwhile downward trend in core indicators continued, as I-index y/y change declined 7.04% in…

Macro View
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Loan Growth: Where do the Expenses Come From?

Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the beginning of a period of low growth with tepid economic performance.…

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