Author Oguz Erkol

Independent research analyst with MSc in Finance and Investment, 2 years of professional work experience and local investment advisory certificates. Currently looking for opportunities such as job offers, global collaborations. For any enquiries, please send an e-mail to oguz (at) turkishmarketnews (dot) com or find me through the social icons at the top-right.

Macro View
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Turkey GDP Data: Time for an Overhaul?

Turkey posted its first negative GDP growth figure in seven years in Q3 2016 when it abruptly announced a methodology change in the calculation of the macro economic variable just the day before the official statement. After having released reports for more the two consecutive…

Macro View
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Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum

Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate that exceeded expectations, economic indicator overall suggested the continuation of the economic…

Macro View
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A Brief History of Monetary Orthodoxy in Turkey

Since late 2010, the Central Bank of Turkey has been employing unconventional monetary policy tools primarily for price stability, and creating an environment conducive for economic development. It is hard to tell the reserve bank has succeeded in the former, and Turkey’s track record of…

Macro View
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Credit Guarantee Fund: Will It Juice Economy?

Turkish government introduced a new facility so-called ‘Credit Guarantee Fund’ a couple of months ago to boost the economic activity by spurring lending to small and medium size enterprises where majority of the country’s workforce is employed. As is Clear from its name, this is…

Macro View
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Mortgage Boom in the Making

Construction sector has maintained a significant role for Turkish economy in recent years as house prices in mega cities have skyrocketed and government sponsored large projects have been under way. Now with the economy sending signals of slowdown, we not surprisingly saw some attempts to…

Macro View
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Q4 2016 GDP Preview: Recovering but Subdued

Q4 2016 GDP data will be posted this Friday, probably mark a recovery from Q3 when a negative figure was recorded as the consensus estimates signal a 1.9% annual change in GDP, corresponding to 2.2% growth for FY 2016. We believe that Q4 GDP growth…

Macro View
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Turkish Labor Market: The Lean Times

Turkish statistics office released December 2016 jobs report which suggested that the unemployment rate at 12.7% hit a 7-year high as well as a seasonally adjusted figure at 12%. More importantly, the number of unemployed people stood at 3.87 million which was the higher figure…

Macro View
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Inflation Targeting: Now Officially Tenuous

Inflation in Turkey has not necessarily been a special case, but is likely to be given its current levels. We previously noted that annual CPI growth will see a double-digit figure in months to come (see here, here and here). Even worse, according to the…

Macro View
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February Inflation: Simply Backtracking

Having lived up to all the hype, Turkey’s February headline inflation printed a double-digit figure. Moreover, further upside movement should be expected as core indicators, the negative base effect of food prices, and most importantly, producer price index that is hanging around its record highs…

Macro View
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Time for A Macro Update

It is time for an update after a hiatus of several weeks on the blog. In our previous two articles, we put emphasis on Q3 GDP growth which posted a bad reading as the economic output growth turned to negative territory for the first time…

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