Is Debt Saturation A Reality for Turkey?
Debt saturation, an economic term commonly used for today’s developed markets where the excess-liquidity-led more-debt-less-growth conundrum is faced, is becoming more increasingly relevant to generally accepted discourse on Turkish economy. While the country already had been through a severe credit crunch over the past two quarters, the weakening relationship between (slowing) growth and (rising) debt was a long-standing issue in...
How Banks Benefited From Easy Money Policy
One immutable rule in developing nations is the existence of politicians who palpably need fast economic activity to keep its voter base strong. In Turkey, this is absolutely proven to be right by the President Erdogan whose repeated pro-growth economic views are well known ─which include very dissenting opinions to generally accepted theories such as...
Turkey Inflation: A Year with A Bad Ending
‘Hate to Say I Told You So’ was one of the most iconic songs in early 2000s, performed by the band called The Hives. Now the phrase also reflects my views on the evolution of Turkey’s price stability indicators this year. In line with my (ahead of the curve) expectations, which I shared in a...
Turkey GDP Data: Time for an Overhaul?
Turkey posted its first negative GDP growth figure in seven years in Q3 2016 when it abruptly announced a methodology change in the calculation of the macro economic variable just the day before the official statement. After having released reports for more the two consecutive quarters when each reading exceeded the consensus estimates by wide...
Q2 Recap: Economy Regaining Momentum
Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate that exceeded expectations, economic indicator overall suggested the continuation of the economic upswing and we now estimate that Turkey will post another...