Macro View
0
Service Jobs: Structural Headwind?

One of the key issues the world economy faces today is declining productivity. At this juncture, Turkey seems to be obliged to deal with a structural headwind stemming from its weakness labor market of which dynamics have changed radically. As this is the case in…

Macro View
0
Q3 2016: Growth Turned Negative

First, The Revision Turkey’s official statistics office released major revisions to its national accounts data as the data was rebased such that the components are weighted to compile a real GDP statistics by chain-linking with 2009 as the base year. The office also introduced changes…

Sector Reports
0
Public Banks: One More Leak to Plug

To date we have posted two articles specifically focused on differentiates between public and private banks. As they have been in many developing economies ─particularly in India─, banks controlled by the government are milked to the bone with being forced to provide lending to sustain…

Sector Reports
0
Turkish Banks: A Deceleration in Earnings

We have been closely monitoring the banking sector in Turkey as the industry is usually at the focal point for investors looking at the country. Previously we analyzed the declining earnings in the industry and our finding suggested that the monetary policy framework causing higher…

Macro View
0
Turkish Lira: Liquidity Challenges Ahead

Declining volumes in currency trading has been an overriding theme as banks have been subject to stricter regulations on their trading activities. It is early to talk about the recent Trumpflation trade has caused any change globally, but when it comes to trading Turkish lira…

Macro View
0
Monetary Confusion and Credit Cycles

Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap and high inflation may be among them, despite a good economic performance. Pretending that…

Sector Reports
0
Non-Financial Sector Debt: Impending Risks

Previously we noted that Turkey debt will draw attention as global monetary conditions were set to be less friendly to developing economies than it had been in the past. Following the Trump win, we have seen a bond rout in the United States, resulting in…

Macro View
0
November MPC: Waiting For Further Hikes

The monetary policy committee raised 1-week rate by 50 bps to 8% and the upper band by 25 bps to 8.50% vs a consensus expectations split between a 25 bps hike in the 1-week repo change and no change. As a separate decision, the central…

Macro View
2
Inflation Risk Rises As Lira Falters

There is substantial uncertainty stemming from several factors pressuring the core indicators, both to the upside and downside. On one hand, we have slowing economic activity with faster than expected rise in unemployment is easing inflationary pressures. On the other hand, TRY depreciating trend which…

Macro View
0
August Job Report: Confirming Weakness

The unemployment rate in Turkey rose by 1.2 percentage points y/y to 11.3% while the non-farm unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%. This August job report marked another step in deceleration pace of the economy. Partly due to the purge following the coup attempt and struggling…

Macro View
3
September Industrial Production: Stating GDP Contraction

September industrial production index was down -4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Following the results analysts downgraded their 2016 GDP growth estimate to…

Macro View
0
Turkey Outlook Upgraded at S&P

S&P upgraded Turkey’s outlook from negative to stable with a maintain a credit rating of BB which is two notches below the investment grade, citing government policy gradually refocusing on measures to reduce external vulnerabilities. Here we list key takeaways from the report: Accepting that…

1 2 3 13