Sunday 01st February 2015,
Turkish Market News

A Historical Analysis of Turkish Bank Stocks

A Historical Analysis of Turkish Bank Stocks

As I noted earlier, Turkish stock market is mostly driven by a bunch of large-cap bank stocks with high levels of trading activity. Under these circumstances, developments in the industry becomes crucially important for any investor holding Turkish assets. Hereby, my aim is to mention some important points by using some valuation metrics in historical [...]

January 30, 2015 Oguz Erkol Equities 0

Central Bank Independence Attacked Again

Central Bank Independence Attacked Again

The 2001 crisis and the following the post-crisis period were important milestones for economic policy-making in Turkey as well as for the monetary policy. In 2002 Turkish Central Bank adopted a modern monetary policy with primary objective of achieving price stability after the bank had been vested with instrument independence in the previous year. Thanks to [...]

January 19, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View, Politics 0

Sluggish Credit Growth: A Cause for Concern?

Sluggish Credit Growth: A Cause for Concern?

The evolution of Turkey’s banking system in early 2000s was a lesson to be learned for any emerging countries, even for the developed ones. Following the 1994 crisis, Turkish financial system had come to settle in a fuzzy equilibrium with a large nominal stock of carried by a handful of banks in a lucrative “carry [...]

December 17, 2014 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

The Outlook of Foreign Direct Investment

The Outlook of Foreign Direct Investment

Turkey is running a large current account deficit and is a big borrower from abroad as the deficit roughly accounts for 6% of the country’s total GDP and short-term foreign debt stock hits $130 billion. Under such circumstances foreign capital would suppress the rising concerns around the country’s debt. However, Turkey seems to be less [...]

December 4, 2014 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

Turkish Banks: An Overview of Funding Trends

Turkish Banks: An Overview of Funding Trends

After focusing on expectations, risks and valuations in Turkish banks, here the funding trends across the industry becomes the theme of this post. In the above-mentioned post, we showed that much faster rise in loans compared with domestic savings rates would be creating liquidity and funding risk for the banking system. At the end of [...]

November 5, 2014 Oguz Erkol Equities 0

Turkish Banks: Expectations, Valuations & Risks

Turkish Banks: Expectations, Valuations & Risks

Expectations Over the past two months we have seen earnings upgrades coming to an end in most emerging market as well as in Turkey. Specifically, for Turkish banks, consensus lowered next year’s earnings estimate by a considerable 0.7%, bringing the cumulative cut to 1.5% since mid-August. Still, analysts averagely estimate an earnings per share growth [...]

October 31, 2014 Oguz Erkol Equities 0

Investment Expenditures by Businesses

Investment Expenditures by Businesses

In a previous post about Turkey’s GDP growth, we mentioned the investment expenditures of the private sector as the weakest part of the economy. Poor track record in the component has been undermining the growth for a dozen of quarters. Companies allocating less money to extend their businesses also have rising concerns around the sustainability. Because investment [...]

October 28, 2014 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

Turkish Stocks: Volatility and Returns

Turkish Stocks: Volatility and Returns

It recently has been with full of ups and downs in almost all financial markets. Dips and spikes certainly should have thrown many investors for a loop. As expected it has been the same in Turkish markets. After hitting the top over 80,000 at the end of August, the benchmark stock index fell by roughly [...]

October 21, 2014 Oguz Erkol Equities 0