Macro View
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Turkey: Debt on the Radar Again

In a widely expected and almost inevitable move, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating by one notch to Ba1 (junk level) on Friday, quoting the increase in the risks related the country’s external funding requirements and the weakening in previously supportive credit fundamentals, particularly growth and…

Macro View
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Turkey: Q2 2016 Recap

Turkey’s real GDP grew by 3.1% y/y in Q2, below the market consensus of 3.7% and our estimation of 3.4%. Of that growth number, 3.4% and 1.7% came from household and public consumption, respectively, which were partly offset by weak foreign demand that a negative…

Business Reports
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Turkey: Brokerage Industry Trends

Turkey’s brokerages faced sharp trading falls in a tough climate last year of which 30% reported losses during the first half. That said, we had seen some downsizing-related layoffs as well as some international investment banks simply quitting the business. While this was partly due…

Macro View
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August Inflation: Short Term Relief Provided

Headline inflation surprised on the downside in August with m/m realization of -0.29% against the market expectations for a flat reading. Annual inflation lowered to 8.05% from 8.79% a month ago. Meanwhile core inflation has also declined in August to 8.4% from 8.8% in July.…

Macro View
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Turkey Macro: 2Q16 GDP Growth Preview

Turkey’s growth has been remarkable resilient recently. While some of the biggest developing has entered recession, and some other has just muddled along, Turkey has managed to sustain economic growth along with its Asia peers amid rising concerns around emerging markets. Turkey, despite some setbacks,…

Macro View
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Turkish Banks: What to Expect After 2Q Earnings

Turkish banks enjoyed the seconds earnings season of this year, as their profitability metrics hit two-year highs on the back of strong operational performance. The downward trend for Turkish banking sector that had started in mid-2013 ended in August 2015, when the systemwide ROAE hit…

Equities
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Turkish Industrials: Buying Opportunities

In a recent note, we mentioned that now may be the moment to get in on value in Turkish stocks, particularly in industrial stocks. Following that, Borsa Istanbul Industrials Index (BIST:XUSIN) has bounced back 4.5% in two trading days, beating the banks, but currently see…

Equities
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Turkey: Life After Coup Attempt

On July 15, there was a strategically inept and thankfully failed coup attempt in Turkey, which, in fact, was destined for failure and would lead nothing but a civil war. It was that latest mishap in a long series of political events, and is now…

Macro View
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Why Core Inflation Will Stay High?

Turkish central bank has been failed to use its monetary policy tools to maintain low inflation. The headline inflation rate has been extremely volatile due to fluctuating food prices, while core inflation has remained stubbornly above the target rate of 5% over the past five…

Macro View
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Q1 2016 GDP Growth: Stronger but Iffy

Turkish economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2015, above the consensus and our expectations of 4.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded by 3% q/q. Household consumption expenditures, which generates two thirds of the GDP, continued to improve and posted a growth rate of…

Equities
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Turkish Financials: Latest Results & Outlook

Turkish banks have outperformed its EM peers on a ytd basis (see the chart below), as MSCI EM Financials index took a huge hit in the first two weeks of this year arising out of a massive sell-out in Chinese markets. Excluding that timeframe, the…

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