Macro View
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Turkey Macro: 2Q16 GDP Growth Preview

Turkey’s growth has been remarkable resilient recently. While some of the biggest developing has entered recession, and some other has just muddled along, Turkey has managed to sustain economic growth along with its Asia peers amid rising concerns around emerging markets. Turkey, despite some setbacks,…

Macro View
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Turkish Banks: What to Expect After 2Q Earnings

Turkish banks enjoyed the seconds earnings season of this year, as their profitability metrics hit two-year highs on the back of strong operational performance. The downward trend for Turkish banking sector that had started in mid-2013 ended in August 2015, when the systemwide ROAE hit…

Equities
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Turkish Industrials: Buying Opportunities

In a recent note, we mentioned that now may be the moment to get in on value in Turkish stocks, particularly in industrial stocks. Following that, Borsa Istanbul Industrials Index (BIST:XUSIN) has bounced back 4.5% in two trading days, beating the banks, but currently see…

Equities
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Turkey: Life After Coup Attempt

On July 15, there was a strategically inept and thankfully failed coup attempt in Turkey, which, in fact, was destined for failure and would lead nothing but a civil war. It was that latest mishap in a long series of political events, and is now…

Macro View
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Why Core Inflation Will Stay High?

Turkish central bank has been failed to use its monetary policy tools to maintain low inflation. The headline inflation rate has been extremely volatile due to fluctuating food prices, while core inflation has remained stubbornly above the target rate of 5% over the past five…

Macro View
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Q1 2016 GDP Growth: Stronger but Iffy

Turkish economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2015, above the consensus and our expectations of 4.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded by 3% q/q. Household consumption expenditures, which generates two thirds of the GDP, continued to improve and posted a growth rate of…

Equities
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Turkish Financials: Latest Results & Outlook

Turkish banks have outperformed its EM peers on a ytd basis (see the chart below), as MSCI EM Financials index took a huge hit in the first two weeks of this year arising out of a massive sell-out in Chinese markets. Excluding that timeframe, the…

Macro View
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Turkey: February Job Report

Good News or Bad News Labor market data for February 2016 was released early this week. The unemployment rate was down 20 basis points on monthly basis to 10.9% according to the official figures. The employment rate also saw a pick-up and stood at 45.3%…

Macro View
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Turkey: End of the Benign Cycle in Inflation?

The results of Turkish central bank’s survey of expectations released which showed that participants were expecting to see monthly reading of 0.65% in May inflation. Having said that, the year-end CPI growth is now projected at 7.80%, 11 basis points lower when compared to the…

Macro View
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Turkish Banks: Differentiating Rapidly

At a time when some argue that Turkey is on a path to being more state-sponsored economy owing to the Treasury guaranteeing large scale projects, the performance comparison of public and private banks gains importance. Thus, we aim to compare both groups in terms of…

Macro View
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Turkey Industrial Production: Particularly Strong

The industrial production data released by Turkish Stats Office yesterday highlighted that the economic activity in March was particularly strong in March. The IP index was up by 2.6% y/y despite the reading was 40 bps lower compared to the linked month. The sub-index of…

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