Saturday 04th July 2015,
Turkish Market News

Two Takeaways from the Latest Jobs Report

Two Takeaways from the Latest Jobs Report

It has been a while since Turkish Stats Office announced the labor report for March. Many analysts offered cautious optimism on the report. On the other hand there seemed to be some important points missed by most of those analysts. First, let us take a look at the headline numbers: In seasonally adjusted terms the [...]

July 1, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

Turkey M&A Outlook

Turkey M&A Outlook

An Overall view of Turkish M&A activities M&A transactions along with other corporate finance actions such as divestitures, spin-offs, IPOs, corporate bond issuances and seasoned offerings are nowadays as much a talking point among finance professionals in Turkey as in Western economies though this was not the case just some 20 odd years ago when [...]

June 24, 2015 Cem Alpay Business Reports 0

State-Owned Banks under Pressure

State-Owned Banks under Pressure

Considering the fact that poor performance from main bank stocks is more able to drag the whole market down in Turkey than anywhere else, I have been trying to provide comprehensive information about the key themes in the industry in order to measure the changing dynamics. From this point I find analyzing of state-owned banks’ [...]

June 22, 2015 Oguz Erkol Sector Reports 0

Economic Update: 1Q15 GDP & April Current Account

Economic Update: 1Q15 GDP & April Current Account

Gross Domestic Product Turkey GDP grew by more than expected (2.3% versus 1.6%) in the first three months of 2015, data from Turkstats showed on Wednesday. Despite the fact that the reported figure signaled a below par growth in the country, we saw the pressure on Turkish assets easing for a while following the economic [...]

June 12, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View, Politics 0

Are Turkish Banks Undervalued?

Are Turkish Banks Undervalued?

Turkish banks had outperformed European peers over the course of last year. However, rising risks around Turkish central bank’s independency depressed the asset prices in the country as well as the share prices. Therefore, the gap between Turkish banks and their European peers began to close starting late January. Since then, we have seen Turkish [...]

June 5, 2015 Oguz Erkol Sector Reports 0

On HSBC’s Exit from Turkey

On HSBC’s Exit from Turkey

In response to the global financial crisis, financial institutions in advanced economies have increased their focus on risk management leading some of the big names in the industry bowing out of emerging markets with low risk-reward profile. Specifically, Turkey has been a unique stage for the transformation of the global financial system where the Western [...]

June 1, 2015 Oguz Erkol Business Reports, Sector Reports 1

Turkey’s Resilience to a Fed Rate Hike

Turkey’s Resilience to a Fed Rate Hike

The effects on emerging markets of unconventional monetary policies implemented by some advanced economies have been a focus of debate. The policy of so-called quantitative easing that the central banks in advanced economies embarked on has increased capital flows to emerging markets. However, as these policies are scheduled to end in the near future and [...]

May 27, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

Are More Rate Cuts on the Way?

Are More Rate Cuts on the Way?

After Turkish lira bounced back from its record low of 2.74 to 2.58 versus the US dollar, it is stated by some pundits that more rate cut may be on the way from Turkish central later this year with a scenario of serious slowdown in economic activity. On its May meeting the central bank decided [...]

May 21, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

Scary Istanbul House Price Boom

Scary Istanbul House Price Boom

There is a rising concern that house prices in Turkey are increasing at an unsustainable rate. According to the Turkish Central Bank’s data, Turkish house prices have consistently grown for the last several years. The chart below shows the rise in inflation adjusted housing prices in the country and specifically in three of the country’s [...]

May 8, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

2014 GDP Growth: Underwhelming

2014 GDP Growth: Underwhelming

Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product expanded 2.6% in 4Q14, higher than the market consensus of 2.1%, bringing full year growth to 2.9%, compared with an upwardly revised 4.2% a year earlier. Stronger than projected stock drawdown was the key driver of the deviation from the consensus. The contribution of net exports and investments to GDP growth was negative. [...]

April 6, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0

March CPI Above Expectations

March CPI Above Expectations

Monthly inflation came in at 1.19% notably higher than the market consensus of 0.8%, made a bad surprise thanks to food and energy prices. Higher food prices are mostly due to the seasonal effects while the latter filtered into the surprise rise in headline inflation thanks to the pass-through effect arising out of weaker Turkish [...]

April 3, 2015 Oguz Erkol Macro View 0